South Africa has recently faced a major load shedding setback, as Eskom unexpectedly escalated power cuts to Stage 6 due to multiple generation unit failures.
On 23rd February 2025, Eskom announced that 10 units had tripped at key power stations, leading to a severe shortfall in electricity supply. The decision to implement Stage 6 load shedding was taken to prevent a total grid collapse and replenish emergency reserves. This sudden increase in power cuts is a major concern for South Africans, as it indicates that the country’s grid remains extremely vulnerable despite having just experienced over 300 consecutive days without load shedding prior to the beginning of this month.
Although Eskom has optimistically projected to improve the EAF to 69% by 2030, the more likely scenario suggests it will remain at around 60% for the rest of the decade. This historic underperformance, coupled with delayed commissioning of new generation facilities, has created a substantial supply and demand imbalance, paving the way for country-wide load shedding.
Until 2024, load shedding had become a near-constant reality for South Africans since 2008, with the supply shortfall ranging between 4 GW and 6 GW in 2022 alone. Th graph below depicts an all-time high in load shedding incidents in 2023, and the prognosis indicates that this challenge is likely to persist.
With an increasing supply shortfall, Eskom is increasingly relying on diesel-based gas turbines to mitigate the effects of higher stages of load shedding. This reliance, however, comes at a cost, driving up the overall expense of electricity over time. The economic ramifications are significant, impacting not only the immediate financial health of businesses coping with extended periods without power but also casting a shadow on the broader South African economy.
